@FediTips @jssfr that makes sense... I sure hope we have elections in the future...

@FediTips @jssfr I disagree about the first vote. In my district only the candidate from the green party has at least a chance to win against the conservative. So it makes sense for me to vote for the green candidate to challenge the conservative. Even my usual vote goes to the left party

@FediTips @jssfr
That doesn’t seem correct.
The 1st vote is for the district representative - which is first-past-the-post and thus voting for a party that has a realistic chance of getting to the majority in the district is sensible - especially if it’s about preventing another party from gaining the seat. In some districts (such as mine) parties that have a small share of the national vote can still have a strong local footprint and there the 1st vote is a good way to support them - but that’s not true for most districts.

The 2nd vote is proportional, so there small parties will have as much a chance as those with a large vote share. Nonetheless the party still needs to cross the 5% threshold, so voting for a party polling at below 3% is not a great strategy if one would want to prevent the AfD from gaining seats.

@FediTips @jssfr Not anymore. This was 3 years ago.

To use your German federal parliamentary election votes to maximize your influence on who gets into parliament:

First vote: Which candidate is likely to win in your particular local voting district? If you like that person, vote for her or him. If not, vote for the person with second best chance.

Second vote: Which parties have a reasonable chance to get into the next parliament? Choose among those.

Deviations from this send political signals, but influence outcome less.

@FediTips @jssfr

EDIT: You changed it. The current version is good.

Sorry, @FediTips , but your suggestion on what to do with your first vote is, I believe, the worst hint from you I've read thus far. With margin. (Which is to say I usually like what I read from you.)

A first vote for a party that has a tiny followership in your voting district and no reasonable chance to win that district is basically wasted, from an election-outcome point of view.

@jssfr

@FediTips I already did. I knowe it will be bad tonight, the question is: how bad?

p.p.s. Okay, polls have closed in Germany, well done to everyone who voted and let's hope for the best in the weeks to come as a coalition government is formed.

(For those wondering, I don't make a habit of posting about elections on this account. I'll only do one-off posts if there's some kind of historically dangerous situation.)